Definition of Theoretical Probability:
Let a random experiment produce only finite number of mutually exclusive and equally likely outcomes. Then the probability of an event E is defined as
The formula for finding the theoretical probability of an event is
Number of favorable outcomesTheoretical probability is also known as Classical or A Priori probability.
To find the theoretical probability of an event we need to follow the above explanation.
Problems based on Theoretical Probability
1. A fair coin is tossed 450 times and the outcomes were noted as: Head = 250, Tail = 200
Find the probability of the coin showing up
(i) a head
(ii) a tail.
Solution:
Number of times coin is tossed = 450
Number of heads = 250
Number of tails = 200
(i) Probability of getting a head
Number of favorable outcomes(ii) Probability of getting a tail
Number of favorable outcomes2. In a cricket match the Sachin hit a boundary 5 times out of 30 balls he plays. Find the probability that he
(i) hit a boundary
(ii) do not hit a boundary.
Solution:
Total number of balls Sachin played = 30
Number of boundary hit = 5
Number of times he did not hit a boundary = 30  5 = 25
(i) Probability that he hit a boundary
Number of favorable outcomes(ii) Probability that he did not hit a boundary
Number of favorable outcomes3. The record of
weather stations report shows that out of the past 95 consecutive days,
its weather forecast was correct 65 times. Find the probability that on a
given day:
(i) it was correct
(ii) it was not correct.
Solution:
Total number of days = 95
Number of correct weather forecast = 65
Number of not correct weather forecast = 95  65 = 30
(i) Probability of ‘it was correct forecast’
Number of favorable outcomes(ii) Probability of ‘it was not correct forecast’
Number of favorable outcomes4. In a society 1000 families with 2 children were selected and the following data was recorded
Find the probability of a family, having:
(i) 1 boy
(ii) 2 boys
(iii) no boy.
Solution:
According to the given table;
Total number of families = 333 + 392 + 275 = 1000
Number of families having 0 boy = 333
Number of families having 1 boy = 392
Number of families having 2 boys = 275
(i) Probability of having ‘1 boy’
Number of favorable outcomes(ii) Probability of having ‘2 boys’
Number of favorable outcomes(iii) Probability of having ‘no boy’
Number of favorable outcomes
More solved examples on theoretical probability:
5. Two fair coins are tossed 225 times simultaneously and their outcomes are noted as:
(i) Two tails = 65,
(ii) One tail = 110 and
(iii) No tail = 50
Find the probability of occurrence of each of these events.
Solution:
Total number of times two fair coins are tossed = 225
Number of times two tails occur = 65
Number of times one tail occur = 110
Number of times no tail occur = 50
(i) Probability of occurrence of ‘two tails’
Number of favorable outcomes(ii) Probability of occurrence of ‘one tail’
Number of favorable outcomes(iii) Probability of occurrence of ‘no tail’
Number of favorable outcomes6. A die is thrown randomly four hundred fifty times. The frequencies of outcomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 were noted as given in the following table:
Find the probability of the occurrence of the event
(i) 4
(ii) a number < 4
(iii) a number > 4
(iv) a prime number
(v) a number < 7
(vi) a number > 6
Solution:
Total number of times a die is thrown randomly = 450
(i) Number of occurrence of a number 4 = 75
Probability of the occurrence of ‘4’
(ii) Number of occurrence of a number less than 4 = 73 + 70 + 74 = 217
Probability of the occurrence of ‘a number < 4’
(iii) Number of occurrence of a number greater than 4 = 80 + 78 = 158
Probability of the occurrence of ‘a number > 4’
(iv) Number of occurrence of a prime number i.e. 2, 3, 5 = 70 + 74 + 80 = 224
Probability of the occurrence of ‘a prime number’
(v) Number of occurrence of a number less than 7 i.e. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 = 73 + 70 + 74 + 75 + 80 + 78 = 450
Probability of the occurrence of ‘a number < 7’
(vi) Number of occurrence of a number greater than 6 = 0,
Because when a die is thrown all the 6 outcomes are 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and 6 so, there is no number greater than 6.
Probability of the occurrence of ‘a number > 6’
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